Exhibitor numbers for next month’s Dubai Airshow are up around 10 percent on last year as commercial and military aircraft manufacturers beat a path to the door of the oil-rich Gulf states, among the biggest spender on aviation and defence in recent years.Organisers of the biannual exhibition said on Tuesday there will be just over 900 exhibitors at the show, up from 850 in 2007, while visitor numbers are expected to rise to around 50,000, compared to 45,421 at the previous show.
Fairs and Exhibition (F&E) said it was optimistic about the prospects for the show, which runs Nov. 15-19, despite the steep downturn in the aviation industry in the wake of the global recession.
Globally airlines have been forced to slash jobs and routes over last 12 months in an effort to stem losses in the face of plummeting passenger traffic and rising fuel prices.
International passenger traffic is expected to decline by 4 percent in 2009, while cargo volumes are forecast to fall by 14 percent, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA).
IATA has forecast airline losses will widen to $11 billion from an earlier projection of $9 billion due to weaker revenues and high oil prices escalating operating costs.
The Middle East has been the one bright spot in the gloomy world picture, witnessing double-digit growth in passenger traffic for much of the year as regional carriers aggressively expand fleets and routes.
IATA, however, has cautioned regional carriers’ profit margins will come under increasing pressure as capacity continues to outstrip demand.
Airlines Emirates, Etihad and Qatar Airways are among the biggest customers of aircraft manufacturers Airbus and Boeing, and have dominated the headlines at previous airshows with multi-billion dollar orders that have helped make up the numbers as others hold back amid the recession.
The last Dubai Airshow saw orders announced worth more than $150 billion, with Emirates placing $34.9 billion in orders, Qatar Airways $13.5 billion and Dubai Aerospace Enterprise (DAE) $13.5 billion.
Since then Etihad has unveiled a 100-plane order worth $20 billion split between Airbus and Boeing, while Qatar Airways has splashed an additional $2.5 billion on aircraft.
COMMERCIAL DOWN, MILITARY UPIt is unlikely such big orders will be unveiled at this year’s show, but organisers still expect significant announcements.
Airbus has forecast Middle East airlines must spend $243 billion on new orders between now and 2028, while rival Boeing has put the figure at more than $300 billion.
Alison Weller, aerospace director at F&E, said the two aircraft makers have booked nine slots for media announcements, including new plane orders.
“We are hopeful there will be some bullish announcements,” she told reporters, but admitted there would be substantial decrease in commercial aircraft orders.
Airbus and Boeing will have their fingers crossed there will be no nasty surprises.
Emirates has already indicated it is looking at postponing deliveries due to the global recession, while Dubai-based aircraft leasing firm LCAL has slashed its order for Boeing 787 Dreamliners to five planes from 21.
Weller said the drop in commercial ordered will be compensated by a significant number of military orders.
"There are a large number of military contracts from the Middle East that will be announced,” she said.
Middle East countries have significantly ramped up defence spending in recent years, with Frost & Sullivan forecasting spending will surpass $100 billion by 2014, led by Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
The UAE is the third-biggest arms importer worldwide behind China and India, with the Gulf state accounting for 6 percent of the world's arms imports between 2004 and 2008, according to leading defence think tank the SIPRI.
Saudi Arabia is currently in talks over an agreement to purchase military transport helicopters from Russia and more Eurofighter jets, while the UAE is in negotiations with French and Italian defence contractors to buy around 100 fighter jets.