Since the union of the UAE, Abu Dhabi has chosen to be viewed as the conservative capital of the UAE in comparison to its more commercially driven neighbour Dubai. This did not mean that the capital was by any means behind Dubai in a realistic sense, but that the government’s own will was the only driver for development, as opposed to a thriving private sector.Essentially, there was no private sector of notable mass there. The capital had realized that after approximately 35 years of relative obscurity on the international stage - baring discreet fund managers in Geneva, London and Tokyo - there was little international brand equity in the name of Abu Dhabi.
And so, approximately five years ago, the emirate made a strategic decision to change not only the way it was being perceived by cities and nations from around the world, but also by its own inhabitants.
Through several interviews and press releases, the capital laid out its plans. In some of these interviews the terms ‘cultural tourism’ and ‘getaway resorts’ were used. The message was clear; Abu Dhabi would approach its urban development plans differently from Dubai. It would be more selective in its tourism plans, not to mention its plans to attract residents.
An impressively long array of projects have since been launched; ranging from cultural development (Saadiyat Cultural District), automotive sports and entertainment (Ferrari theme park, Ferrari World Abu Dhabi, and the Formula 1 race - occurring next month), renewable energy (Masdar City - reportedly the world’s first carbon-neutral, zero-waste city), media (TwoFour54) and healthcare (Cleveland Clinic Abu Dhabi and Imperial College London Diabetes Centre, among others).
The capital’s projects will be successful without question. There is no doubt that the government has developed a clear vision with a firm plan of execution; the question I am posing is whether nationals and long term residents of Abu Dhabi comprehend the incredible transformation they’re about to witness, and if the Government of Abu Dhabi understands how hard it will be to take residents forward with its vision.
Consider the following: Abu Dhabi’s population stood at approximately 1.46 million in 2006 and is projected to reach 1.75 million in 2010, according to the Department of Planning and Economy. Meanwhile, the Abu Dhabi 2030 plan expects the population to grow to “3.1 million from the current baseline figure of 930,000 in 2007, while annual tourist visits and residential units are set to rise to 7.9 million and 686,000 from 1.8 million and 180,000 respectively.”
Furthermore, a World Health Organization report published in June claimed that the UAE’s birth rate halved from 4.4 to 2.3 children per woman, which suggests that when Abu Dhabi’s population increases, it won’t be due to an organic growth rate.
And finally, although there are no official statistics, the percentage of Emiratis in Abu Dhabi is estimated to be in the range of 15-20 percent; and if the Abu Dhabi 2030 population estimate is remotely accurate, the ratio of Emiratis to residents in the future will be somewhere in the realm of 10 percent.
So, are Abu Dhabi residents and the government ready for a big change? I believe not. This is partly due to a euphoric optimism on the government’s part that has gone unchallenged thus far; in other words, a form of unintended denial.
It is also due to the excitement felt among Abu Dhabi’s nationals and residents for their city’s plans; after all, the capital’s residents have always been accustomed to traveling to neighboring Dubai for any form of major recreational activity.
One can’t deny that the average Emirati of Abu Dhabi must’ve been mildly annoyed that Abu Dhabi didn’t boast a hotel to match those in Dubai, Manama or Muscat; something the magnificent Emirates Palace has addressed in such finality. So between the government’s confidence in the appeal of its plans to its population, and the population’s excitement about the emirate’s vision, the major hurdle has been sidelined without notice.
Dubai has often been criticized - sometimes rightly - that its development plans were at times too aggressive for its existing populous. The justification for this has always been that Dubai needed to boost FDI (foreign direct investment) to maintain growth since its oil revenues were limited. The nationals and residents of Dubai understood this need.
Fortunately, Abu Dhabi does not need to take the same path and can develop its projects with a slightly slower pace and turn its focus to its residents. This focus should emphasize a strong and sustainable awareness campaign of the government’s plans; it should include workshops and focus group sessions with students, parents, government employees and private businessmen.
If Dubai’s nationals, who had historically been fishermen and traders - trades that demanded interaction with others - found the emirate’s development bewildering, how will Abu Dhabi’s nationals, who historically were farmers and sheep herders - trades that demanded little interaction with others - find their city’s development?
In short, Abu Dhabi may have attracted the world’s attention with its development plans, but it still needs the backing of its own people. Some might say that’s already occurred; humor me, and let’s just make sure.
Mishaal Al Gergawi is an Emirati commentator on socio-economic and cultural affairs in the UAE.