WASHINGTON - Republicans seeking a
comeback from recent losses may pick up the governor's seats in
Virginia and New Jersey on Tuesday in campaigns that tested the
limits of U.S. President Barack Obama's influence.
Democrats were bracing for the unhappy possibility they
could go down to defeat not just in those two states but in a
congressional district in upstate New York where a conservative
candidate was leading.
The election outcome could give some clues as to the
national mood a year after Obama was elected president and a
year before 2010 congressional elections that will represent
the first clear referendum on Obama's time in office.
David Plouffe, Obama's campaign manager in his run to the
White House, dismissed the potential impact of the governor's
races on Democrats and the 2010 elections.
"These are local races, there's 18,000 lifetimes between
now and next November," Plouffe said on NBC's "Today" show.
While local factors influenced all three races, the weak
state of the U.S. economy was an overarching issue that played
a role in each state.
In Virginia, Republican Bob McDonnell was leading Democrat
Creigh Deeds by double digits in opinion polls as Virginians
went to the polls -- an opportunity for Republicans a year
after Obama became the first Democratic presidential nominee to
win the state since 1964.
Two appearances on Deeds' behalf by Obama appeared to have
little impact, as Democrats suffered from a lack of enthusiasm
without Obama on the ticket and Republicans were
energized by the chance to take back the governor's seat, held
by Democrats the past eight years. Voting ends at 7 p.m. EST
(0000 GMT) and the winner could be known a few hours later.
In New Jersey, Republican Chris Christie has been running
neck-and-neck with Democratic Governor Jon Corzine, the former
Wall Street executive who has pumped $23 million of his own
money into his campaign. A poll released on Monday gave the
Republican a slight lead.
Independent candidate Chris Daggett trailed, and a key
question concerned how many of Daggett's supporters would
abandon him for Christie or Corzine and sway the race.
Obama campaigned with Corzine on Sunday and made a
last-ditch appeal for the Democrat.
"We will not lose this election if all of you are as
committed as you were last year," he said. "So I want everybody
in this auditorium to make a pledge that in these next 48
hours, you will work just as hard for Jon as you worked for
me."
New Jersey polls close at 8 p.m. EST (0100 GMT Wednesday)
but it could be some hours before the outcome is clear.
While a Virginia loss for the Democrats could be considered
fairly predictable in a state long considered a Republican
stronghold, a defeat in New Jersey would be seen as a bigger
blow to the party because the state leans Democratic. Obama won
it by 16 points last year.
"If the Democrats win New Jersey and lose Virginia, I would
basically say, no harm, no foul," said Democratic strategist
Doug Schoen. "The only real adverse impact is if the
administration loses two campaigns, especially one they're
heavily invested in in New Jersey."
Steny Hoyer, the Democratic leader in the U.S. House of
Representatives, said Democratic losses in the governor's races
would not slow Obama's domestic agenda in Congress,
particularly the raging battle over a healthcare overhaul.
"The campaign has not been about that. Their ads have not
been about that. That's not part of the campaign," he said.
In New York City, Mayor Michael Bloomberg appeared headed
to victory over Democrat Bill Thompson after engineering a
rules change to allow him to run for a third term and spending
millions of his own money. As of last month, the billionaire
mayor had spent $85 million to Thompson's $6 million.
A wild race was taking place in New York's 23rd
congressional district for a House seat left vacant when Obama
picked Republican John McHugh as his Army secretary.
Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman was leading
Democrat Bill Owens slightly in the traditionally Republican
district. The race took a bizarre twist over the weekend when
Republican candidate Dede Scozzafava withdrew because of
flagging support and endorsed the Democrat.
Democrats charged the race was an example of how divided
the Republican Party has become between conservatives and
moderates as it tries to rebound from losing control of
Congress in 2006 and the White House in 2008.
Hoffman had been endorsed by conservative Republicans such
as Sarah Palin, last year's Republican vice presidential
nominee.
"If you look at what I think is likely to happen next year,
you already have some Republicans who are more aligned with the
very conservative element of what's happening in New York,
saying, 'This is a model for what you'll see throughout the
country,'" said White House spokesman Robert Gibbs.