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Weekly forecast - Oil

Wed, 27 Feb 2008 12:44 PM
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Weekly forecast - Oil
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Oil prices share a positive relationship with the Canadian dollar and a negative relationship with the U.S dollar. That is if we have positive economic data coming out for Canada, we can see the oil prices shoot up, whereas weak U.S data will result in higher oil prices. We shall focus on the economic data coming out from Canada as oil prices share a much higher correlation with the Canadian dollar meaning oil prices move more based on data from Canada rather than from the U.S.

February 26, 2008 - At 16:00 GMT, we have the Bank of Canada (BOC) Senior Deputy Governor Paul Jenkins, along with Deputy Governor John Murray; testifying about the impact of the appreciating Canadian Dollar before the House of Commons Standing Committee on Industry, Science and Technology. Volatility in the Canadian pairs is expected, and thereby in oil prices as well.

February 27, 2008 – At 15:30 GMT, we have the crude oil inventories report from the U.S Energy Department. The US crude oil inventories are also important as US is the world's largest user of crude oil. There are yet no forecasts made about the inventories. The previous week saw a 4.2M barrels increase in stockpiles.

February 29, 2008 - At 13:30 GMT, we have the current account figures from Canada. It measures the quarterly difference in value between imported and exported goods, services, income flows, and unilateral transfers. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation's currency. It is expected to print unchanged from the previous at 1B. Till now, the estimates are not clear as to where will the Swiss franc go. Any deviations in the actual figures from the expectations can cause huge market volatility in the franc.
 


Market Correlations     Weekly forecast - Currencies



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